RUSSIA: MOSCOW: YELTSIN EXPECTED TO TRY FOR SECOND TERM IN OFFICE

(15 Feb 1996) Eng/Russian/Nat

Russian President Boris Yeltsin is today (Thursday) finally expected to announce he's going to run for a second term of office - but the presidential race will be a hard struggle.

In the eyes of former allies, Yeltsin is no longer the standard bearer of Russian democracy - what he now stands for remains the object of intense political debate.

And with a poor showing in opinion polls, Yeltsin is not only looking for a mandate - he's become a man in search of a mission.

The pathfinder of Russia's reforms for five years, Boris Yeltsin has set off once more on the long march to the Kremlin.

Despite months of speculation, there is little doubt that he will confirm later on Thursday that he's seeking a second term in June's presidential elections.

All year, Yeltsin has been engaged in one long photo-opportunity - the guest of honour at children's parties, construction projects and church services.

But what exactly Yeltsin now stands for remains shrouded in mystery.

Beset by resurgent communists and abandoned by former allies, Yeltsin is not only looking for a mandate.

He is man in search of a mission.

SOUNDBITE:
"Yeltsin senses that anti-communism will work no longer to achieve his goal of re-election for the next term. So he is now trying to find another ideology. Which is more difficult, much more difficult."
SUPER CAPTION: Yevgeny Kiselyov, NTV (Russian Independent Television) News anchor and editor

Rising industrial unrest may force Yeltsin to turn to populist policies to keep key constituencies out of communist hands during the campaign.

But his former reforms chief Anatoly Chubais - fired following strong opposition results in parliamentary elections - has warned that financial handouts will bankrupt the country.

Meanwhile, the war in Chechnya smolders on.

Yeltsin gave the order to invade the breakaway republic which resulted in up to 30-thousand deaths and seriously rocked his reputation as a reformer.

Plans to end the conflict exist only on paper - if they exist at all.

Yet Yeltsin's advisors insist there is no alternative - that for all his faults Yeltsin alone guarantees the ongoing reform of Russia.

SOUNDBITE: (In Russian)
"If Yeltsin is in power, then at least the main things - like free enterprise, freedom of the press and free elections - are guaranteed. The rest is just nuances."
SUPER CAPTION: Emil Payin, Presidential counsellor

But "nuances" like the brutal military attack during last month's hostage crisis - lampooned here in a popular satirical puppet show - led to the final divorce of Yeltsin with many of those who brought him to power in 1991.

Among them is former prime minister Yegor Gaidar.

He's convinced Yeltsin lacks the popular support to defeat communist leader Gennady Zyuganov if it goes to a head-to-head.

SOUNDBITE:
"We think his chances of being reelected are very limited. As you probably do understand, if it is in the second round Zyuganov against another democratic or moderate candidate, it's the vote against the communists. If it's Zyuganov against Yeltsin, it's the vote against Yeltsin. I'm sorry about it but it's a fact."
SUPER CAPTION: Yegor Gaidar, former Russian prime minister

Yeltsin can also expect little support from the younger generation.

Students at Moscow University's journalism faculty are clearly disenchanted with the elderly leader.

SOUNDBITE:
"People say that the communists have lots of chances and our present President Boris Yeltsin has no chances. And that's what people say here too."
SUPER CAPTION: Olga Smirnova, Student

SOUNDBITE:


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