Raoul Pal: Key Trigger for the Largest Crypto Bull Run 🚀

Bitcoin didn’t fail in 2025—the global liquidity engine stalled, and Raoul Pal explains why that sets the stage for what comes next.
Raoul Pal, co-founder of Real Vision Group, explains that 2025 proved to be an unusually difficult and counterintuitive year for financial markets, particularly Bitcoin. The year began with strong optimism but gradually unraveled as liquidity conditions tightened and the global debt cycle extended beyond expectations. Rather than following a predictable four-year market cycle, asset prices were driven by economic forces, with liquidity and debt management emerging as the dominant variables shaping outcomes.
Raoul Pal highlights that liquidity was steadily drained through much of 2025, partly due to a political cycle increasingly focused on 2026. A critical turning point occurred in October during the government shutdown, when a major liquidation event on October 10 triggered sustained weakness across crypto markets. While global liquidity continued to track the NASDAQ almost perfectly, crypto diverged sharply, indicating both a withdrawal of liquidity at the furthest end of the risk curve and a possible structural break within the market.
Raoul Pal notes that had Bitcoin followed the same liquidity relationship as technology stocks, its fair value would be closer to $160,000, implying a significant discount. Risk assets further out on the curve suffered the most, with memecoins and speculative tokens collapsing, while Bitcoin remained comparatively resilient. Looking ahead, Raoul Pal emphasizes that Bitcoin’s current stagnation reflects a lack of real liquidity. When liquidity returns, Bitcoin has the potential to rapidly realign with global liquidity trends and close this valuation gap.


Credits: New Era Finance Podcast & Raoul Pal The Journey Man
Raoul Pal - Why Crypto Crashed (And What's Next)
https://youtu.be/qBqvAsDQmBU?si=LGyEvFLsH4nVWtew

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