The Quantum Threat Timeline: Are We Prepared for the Coming Encryption Shift? 🔐

The Quantum Threat Timeline

The “quantum threat” isn’t about a single day when encryption suddenly fails.

It’s a timeline, and we’re already on it.


Here’s what it looks like:


🔹 Today — Data Harvesting Begins - Adversaries are already collecting encrypted data, knowing that quantum computers will one day decrypt it. This is the “harvest now, decrypt later” threat, the quiet start of the quantum era.



🔹 Next 3–5 Years — Standards & Testing

Governments and tech leaders are rolling out post-quantum encryption standards (like NIST’s Kyber and Dilithium). The next few years are about testing, hybrid deployments, and replacing vulnerable systems — a massive global migration effort.



🔹 5–10 Years - Early Quantum Advantage (SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT ANY TIME BEFORE THEN) As quantum hardware scales, we’ll reach the stage where breaking RSA/ECC becomes feasible for state-level actors.



Systems that haven’t migrated by then will be exposed.



🔹 10+ Years — Post-Quantum Normalisation



Quantum-safe cryptography becomes the new default. Companies that acted early will own the trust advantage; those that waited will face emergency transitions, compliance risks, and lost confidence.



The real takeaway: the timeline has already started. Quantum risk is a slow-moving wave, but it’s moving toward every organisation that depends on digital trust. In short: quantum security isn’t a future problem - it’s a preparation problem.