Why I Believe AGI Is Not Just Around the Corner

This blog post reflects on recent AI interviews and explores why I disagree with overly optimistic predictions about the imminent arrival of Artificial General Intelligence.

Dwarkesh Patel157.0K views17:14

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I wrote this blog post after some of my recent AI interviews, where I was thinking through why I disagreed with their especially bullish projections. If you want to read the original post, you can check it out here: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/timelines-june-2025. And subscribe to my blog if you want to see how I'm personally thinking through the topics I interview people about on the podcast: https://www.dwarkesh.com/ 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 00:00:00 Continual Learning 00:08:06 Computer Use 00:11:27 Reasoning 00:12:45 So what are my predictions? 00:16:21 Dwarkesh.com

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Aug 1, 2025

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