Will Home Prices Drop 50%? | Melody Wright 🏡

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Contagion has been the trend of the US housing market this year as rising inventory and weakening prices have spread to more and more metros.

How bad has it become?

Well, Zillow just revealed that it's data shows that 53% of all US homes lost value over the past 12 months, the most since 2012.

As we're now poised to enter a new year, should we expect the situation to get better or worse?

To make sense of it all for us, we're fortunate to welcome housing analyst Melody Wright back to the program.

Follow Melody on X at @m3_melody

Or on Substack at https://m3melody.substack.com

#housingmarket #mortgagerates #realestate

00:00 – 53 % of U.S. homes lost value in past 12 months (Zillow data)
02:40 – 2025 prediction update: likely flat to slightly down nationally, but clear deceleration
03:36 – Market is frozen: only ultra-high-end homes are still transacting
04:17 – Bifurcated market: median price still looks high because only $1 M+ homes are moving
05:05 – Speculation (not first-time buyers) turbo-charged the boom → now becoming distress
06:36 – Airbnb/short-term rental investors are the biggest distressed sellers right now
09:19 – Institutions have quietly become net sellers (rehabbing & off-loading as leases expire)
11:00 – Short-term rental markets (Tampa, Atlanta, San Antonio) already seeing sales ↑ / prices ↓
14:36 – FHA guardrails (Oct 1) → immediate price slashing & short sales exploding
15:56 – Mortgage rates: bond market complexity + Japan/China levers = no big relief coming
17:06 – Fed itself now admits MBS buying inflated housing → unlikely to repeat
18:00 – Even if rates fell sharply, millions can’t qualify (student loans, layoffs, underwater)
19:24 – Rocket Mortgage now pushing DSCR investor loans → clear sign of desperation
21:55 – Silver tsunami + distressed investors + boomers walking away = massive supply wave
23:03 – Municipal budget crunches → property-tax doubling (Chicago, Boston) → another ownership cost bomb
25:07 – ~50 % decline needed to realign median price with median household income
26:02 – Government likely becomes buyer of last resort (or forces BlackRock to hold the bag)
26:36 – 50-year mortgage = “debt slavery”; nothing-burger that won’t move the needle
29:02 – Portable/assumable mortgages are non-starters (collateral & servicing nightmares)
31:35 – Future affordability “solutions” will be targeted assistance programs (means-tested giveaways)
35:44 – Five years from now: natural market forces win → Great Housing Bust 3.0
38:35 – Median home-buyer age just hit all-time high of 59
41:46 – Signs of absolute desperation: multi-family Frankenstein additions, RV rentals, pad-splits
43:21 – Local “No Data Centers” signs everywhere → communities rejecting power/water grabs
47:44 – Data-center overbuild already complete in many areas (empty, for-lease shells)
50:18 – AI mania = pure narrative; we’ve already hit the limits of LLMs
53:30 – Everything bubble is cracking: AI, housing, Bitcoin — narrative busting everywhere
58:03 – “Desperate people do desperate things” — expect more ugly, creative housing hacks
1:00:30 – Final outlook: 2026 spring selling season will be “very interesting” (code for carnage)
1:06:09 – Hopeful silver lining: younger Americans will finally be able to participate again once speculation is flushed
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