Bihar Election: Axis My India's Pradeep Gupta Predicts Close Race

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Pollster Pradeep Gupta, Chairman of Axis My India, predicts a very close contest in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections between the NDA, led by Nitish Kumar and BJP, and the Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD and Congress. According to Gupta, Nitish Kumar remains the only “common denominator” in Bihar politics, having served as Chief Minister for over two decades and retaining relevance despite frequent alliance shifts.

Gupta points out that while there is anti-incumbency sentiment against Nitish Kumar, voters are struggling to find a clear alternative. Before Tejashwi Yadav, the BJP is seen as the primary alternative due to RJD’s “jungle raj” image under Lalu Prasad Yadav. Gupta also identifies Prashant Kishor as an emerging third political force, though his influence is still in the early stages.

After years of political stagnation, Bihar now has a new challenger capturing public attention. Election strategist Prashant Kishor launched his new party, Jan Suraaj, and has been actively campaigning in the state for the past three years. His corruption allegations against state ministers are generating significant discussion, making both the ruling NDA and opposition Mahagathbandhan cautious. However, whether Prashant Kishor can translate this buzz into actual votes remains uncertain.

Catch the full discussion on the Bihar Assembly elections 2025 as Barkha Dutt interviews Pradeep Gupta, analyzing the battle for Bihar and the strategies of key players like Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav, and Prashant Kishor.

Chapters:

2:01 - Will BJP dump Nitish Kumar?
2:48 - Tejashwi Yadav: Close win or narrow miss?
3:19 - Prashant Kishor: the new factor in Bihar politics
3:49 - Pradeep Gupta’s assessment : 2 new dynamics - PK and SIR
5:31 - Nitish Kumar: the ONLY common denominator
9:56 - Will Nitish Kumar return as Chief Minister?
11:04 - Prashant Kishor will QUIT politics if..
13:26 - Who is the face of BJP?
17:00 - How PM Modi’s brand equity influences voters
18:18 - Factors influencing voters’ decision
23:01 - Testing PK’s ‘Jan Suraaj arsh pe ya farsh pe’ claim
26:56 - 3 BIG factors influencing vote share in Bihar
30:56 - Mahagathbandhan & Tejashwi: What’s changed since 2020?
34:34 - Does the ‘Vote Chori’ campaign benefit the NDA?
35:50 - Can Nitish Kumar switch sides AGAIN?
37:42 - Outro