#15 - Scott Aaronson: quantum computing, AI and AGI progress

Scott Aaronson is a theoretical computer scientist at the University of Texas at Austin, known for his pioneering work on quantum computing and computational complexity. He writes the widely read blog Shtetl-Optimized and has shaped how researchers and the public understand both the possibilities and limits of quantum technology. We talk about the reality of quantum computing, cryptography, AI progress, large language models, and what the future might look like when these technologies converge. Topics are outlined in the timestamps below. Listen on Apple Podcasts (https://podcasts.apple.com/pt/podcast/salvador-podcast/id1798566809?i=1000722234342), Spotify (https://open.spotify.com/episode/6pC5coCpc5Lp7WCdoNdCuI?si=-XGdTHFkQvSgYFh4sCstyA), or wherever you get your podcasts. Support my work here (https://buymeacoffee.com/eudaimoniaq) and follow me on Twitter here (https://x.com/velmeryn) Timestamps 00:00 – Intro 03:25 – How computer science views quantum mechanics today 06:50 – Superconducting qubits and how quantum machines are built 10:15 – The rules of quantum probability explained 13:41 – Quantum error correction and protecting fragile states 17:06 – When quantum algorithms provide a speed-up (and when they don’t) 20:31 – Skepticism and testing the limits of quantum hype 23:56 – Why Scott is optimistic about scalable quantum computing 27:22 – Potential applications: materials, chemistry, and beyond 30:47 – Shor’s algorithm and breaking classical encryption 34:12 – Bitcoin, cryptography, and the risks of a working quantum computer 37:37 – Grover’s algorithm and the reality of search speedups 41:03 – Large language models vs hard computational problems 44:28 – What tasks AI still can’t solve (and how to test them) 47:53 – GPT-4 vs GPT-3: progress, hype, and possible limits 51:18 – How companies train and deploy models responsibly 54:44 – The pace of change since ChatGPT launched 58:09 – Power and danger: capability without aligned goals 1:01:34 – Why AI is not just another technology but a civilizational shift