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Renowned UPSC Economy Expert Dr. Mrunal Patel breaks down the shocking ₹40,000/kg silver price crash from Oct to Nov. Learn how Silver ETFs, industrial demand, US-China tariff war, and rare “Backwardation” triggered the fall. Perfect for UPSC, SSC-CGL, Banking, IBPS, RBI, CAPF, CDS, State PSC aspirants.
In this short lecture, Dr. Mrunal Patel explains the sudden drop in silver prices. In October, one kg of silver reached nearly ₹1,90,000, but by November, it fell to ₹1,50,000 – a massive ₹40,000 decline in just one month. This crash is linked to a rare market phenomenon called backwardation.
First, understand Silver Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Imagine a mutual fund like Axis stores ₹1 lakh worth of physical silver in a vault and issues paper units proportionally. Each unit might start at ₹100. If silver price rises to ₹1,15,000 per kg in the future, the ETF unit value increases to ₹115. Investors can buy or sell these units on the stock exchange, just like shares. This applies to gold, government bonds, or company shares too.
Silver demand comes from two sources: industrial use and financial sector (ETFs). Industrial demand surged due to the US-China tariff war under Trump. Electric Vehicle (EV) companies panicked, hoarding silver to avoid future shortages and higher costs from tariffs. This speculation pushed ETF prices up in financial markets.
Silver markets have two types: Spot Market (immediate buy and delivery, say at ₹100) and Futures Market (buy now, delivery in 30 days, normally at ₹115). Futures are higher because of storage costs, interest foregone, etc. But in exceptional cases, it reverses – spot at ₹115, futures at ₹100. This inversion is backwardation.
Why did backwardation happen? Speculators expected intense US-China tariffs in early October, but by month-end, leaders were set to meet in South Korea for compromise. Future demand was expected to normalize, so spot prices stayed high while futures dropped. Investors sighed in relief, pulling money from silver/gold back to equities. Result: silver cheaper by ₹40,000/kg, gold prices also stabilized.
This ties into broader markets. With tariff fears easing, stock markets may rise again, but counterarguments like the Solo Paradox suggest US tech bubble risks. More on that in the next short – subscribe to not miss!
For UPSC CSE, RBI Grade B, NABARD, SSC CGL, Banking, IBPS PO, CAPF, CDS, State PSC – master economy concepts with Dr. Mrunal Patel. Enroll on Unacademy and use coupon code Mrunal.org for exclusive discount.
Key Takeaways:
- Silver ETF: Physical silver-backed tradable units
- Industrial vs Financial Demand
- Spot vs Futures: Normal contango vs rare backwardation
- Tariff War Impact on Commodities
- Investor Behavior in Uncertainty
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