Car Market Update: July 2025 – Big Price Drops or More Pain Ahead?
“Dealers want you to believe prices are going up again. But the trends behind the numbers say something else. July is shaping up to be the most important month of 2025 for car buyers—and if you're not watching closely, you’ll miss the window of opportunity.”
“I’m Kevin Hunter, The Homework Guy—and today, we’ve got the July car market update that dealers hope you won’t see.
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Stay ahead of the curve with Kevin Hunter, The Homework Guy, as he delivers the July car market update, revealing key trends and potential opportunities for buyers. Discover how to navigate dealer tactics, understand current car news, and make informed decisions in this dynamic environment. Don't miss this crucial market analysis!
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The softening market is most noticeable in sedans and 2WD SUVs, which are typically less desirable in today’s AWD-obsessed and truck-heavy market. Compact and mid-size sedans have dropped 2–4% since April, reflecting both weaker demand and growing retail supply. That’s good news for buyers. Dealers are more willing to negotiate—especially on units that are aging on their lots or returning from being driven in fleets and lease programs.
Meanwhile, new car prices are seeing pressure from two fronts: rising inventory in domestic brands (especially full-size trucks and EVs) and increased manufacturer incentives, now up over 11% compared to early 2025. Brands like Ford, GM, and Stellantis are beginning to lean on bonus cash and financing offers to maintain volume. However, inventory for Toyota, Honda, and Subaru remains tight—so don’t expect big markdowns there just yet.
While it’s not a buyer’s market across the board… YET… the slow drip in prices is a clear signal: patience and preparation are paying off. If you're shopping this summer, especially in the used market, the next few months could offer some of the most reasonable deals we’ve seen in years—provided you come ready, you have your homework done, and you don’t fall for dealer games. If that kind of focus doesn’t seem like something you can do, visit our website at thehomeworkguy.com and read up on our car buying service, where we do all the work, so you don’t have to.
🔹 First up, Used Car Prices:
Manheim index shows slight decline for third straight month
📉 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Trends – here are the reports for the 1st Half of 2025
May 2025
The Manheim index dropped to 205.2, down 1.4% from April, marking the start of the three-month slide I’m talking about bls.gov+15coxautoinc.com+15coxautoinc.com+15.
June 2025
May to mid-June saw a 0.7% non-seasonally adjusted decline, with seasonally adjusted prices following typical seasonal depreciation (around 0.5%) .
April 2025
In the first half of April, the index slipped from March, with a weekly decline of about 1.4% across the month coxautoinc.com+3coxautoinc.com+3site.manheim.com+3.
The recent Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index reports from April to June 2025 are considered a big deal in the automotive world. Here’s why this data matters so much—and what it might mean for both buyers and dealers moving forward.