As the Denver Broncos host the Las Vegas Raiders for a critical AFC West battle in Week 10, the stakes are high for both franchises. With playoff positioning hanging in the balance, every snap Thursday night at Empower Field could swing momentum in the crowded divisional race. Here’s a thorough, fact-driven breakdown exploring team trends, key matchups, injury impacts, statistical context, and tactical predictions for this prime-time showdown.
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Recent Performance and Overall Team Trends
Denver enters Thursday riding an impressive six-game win streak, having rapidly transformed their season after a rocky start. Their comeback victory over Houston last week showcased clutch execution and resilience, particularly in close, late-game scenarios. Denver has outperformed both New York and Dallas in recent outings, underscoring offensive improvement and situational football. They’re 4-4-1 against the spread, evidence of their consistency even when modest favorites.
Las Vegas, by contrast, is trending downward. The Raiders have dropped three of their last four, including an overtime heartbreaker against Jacksonville and a shutout loss to Kansas City. Their offense, while capable of occasional big plays, especially with rookie tight end Brock Bowers’ presence, has been sporadic and inconsistent, ranking near the NFL’s bottom in expected points added per play. They’re fading from the AFC playoff picture and desperation may fuel more aggressive game-plan decisions.
Head-to-Head and Statistical Context
History has favored the Raiders in recent matchups, with Las Vegas taking 8 of the past 10 meetings. However, Denver won both contests in the 2024 season (34-18 at home, 29-19 in Vegas) and appears to have reversed the trend behind new defensive and offensive schemes. Over their last ten games, Denver averages 25 points per game when they win against Las Vegas, while the Raiders average just 14.7 in their wins versus Denver. Denver’s run defense has been stout, ranking top-10 in rushing yards allowed per game, while the Raiders’ pass protection remains a vulnerability, struggling to contain pressure and ranking near the league’s bottom in sack rate.
Injury Report Assessment
Denver faces some concerning injuries, especially in their secondary. Safety Brandon Jones (foot), DB J.T. Gray (hamstring), and TE Nate Adkins (knee) are among the seven Broncos estimated as nonparticipants leading into this matchup. The loss of depth could push P.J. Locke and Riley Moss into more prominent roles — both managing recent injuries — placing pressure on the supporting cast to step up if the starters are limited or sidelined.
Las Vegas lists QB Aidan O’Connell (wrist), TE Brock Bowers (toe), and several defensive contributors, but encouragingly all were full participants in walk-throughs earlier in the week. Bowers’ health is crucial; when active, he stretches defenses and opens up passing lanes, especially in high-leverage red-zone opportunities.
Key Matchups and Tactical Analysis
Denver’s defensive front, leading the league in sack percentage, matches up favorably against the Raiders’ offensive line, which has struggled with pass protection and run consistency. Expect a variety of pressure looks targeting Las Vegas’ interior linemen and forcing quick throws.
The Broncos' passing game has improved behind a more efficient offensive line; if Marvin Mims (injury status pending) is cleared, they’ll have a deep-threat option to pair with Sutton and Jeudy. The Raiders’ secondary will be tested vertically if Denver finds rhythm.
Brock Bowers vs. Denver's linebackers and safeties will be a critical chess match; if Bowers is near full strength, his route-running and after-catch ability could be a focal point for Las Vegas, especially after his 12-catch, three-TD performance last week.
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LINKS -
WEBSITE - https://www.footballnationusa.com 👈Full predictions and Weekly Pick Ems
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Game flow could favor Denver if they establish an early lead. Patient offensive play-calling allows their defense to dictate tempo and pressure Aidan O'Connell into mistakes; the Raiders, behind, will likely lean heavier on aggressive downfield shots and fourth-down attempts to keep pace.
Win Probability
Analysts and predictive models see Denver as a heavy favorite, with win probabilities hovering around 75-80% in simulations. The spread opened at Broncos -10, with a projected final of Denver 25, Raiders 17 — aligning with both recent form and statistical projections.