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THE SHORTLIST IS IN! 7 DAYS TO GO. One week until the I bet to win $1,000,000 on the 2025 Melbourne Cup at the Call Of The Card.
After being up until 1am doing form, Adam Sparrow and I systematically analyse EVERY SINGLE RUNNER - against our 10-factor framework.
SHORTLISTS WILL BE REVEALED IN THIS EPISODE + KEY RUNNER RATINGS AND ANALYSIS.
Join us for 58 minutes of ratings, analysis and our thoughts on the runners contesting the 2025 Melbourne Cup.
KEY ANALYSIS:
→ AL RIFFA: Won Irish St Ledger by 4 lengths carrying 61.5kg, broke 3 minutes Curragh Cup, UK rating 121 (6 lengths clear of field), but can he carry 59kg on firm Australian track?
→ HALF YOURS: WON Caulfield Cup, perfectly weighted 52.5kg, UK rating 115.
→ PRESAGE NOCTURNE: Caulfield Cup behind Half Yours, UK rating 116 (from Caulfield) but only 111 in France (Kingsley's concern), 56kg borderline weight
→ VALIANT KING: Won Bart Cummings, 51kg (8kg advantage over Al Riffa), but lacks class
→ RIVER OF STARS: 51kg perfectly weighted, UK rating 109 (concern for both), staying question mark
→ MEYDAAN: Willie Mullins trained, rating 114, distance query over 3200m
→ ABSURD: Willie Mullins, peak UK rating 115, "giving Willie Mullins another chance"
→ FURTHUR: Proven stayer, 52.5kg, UK rating 114, solid English form
→ GOODY TWO SHOES: 13 wins from 26 starts, Joseph O'Brien mare, $51 odds, UK rating 104, THE VALUE FIND - "the one the market got wrong"
→ KNIGHTS CHOICE: Defending champ, 55kg, Adam: "can't repeat - everything fell into place last year"
RATINGS BREAKDOWN:
UK Ratings (most accurate for comparison):
- Al Riffa: 121 (dominant, 6 lengths clear)
- Presage Nocturne (Caulfield): 116
- Half Yours: 115
- Absurd: 115
- Furthur: 114
- Meydaan: 114
- Valiant King: 112
- Presage Nocturne (France): 111
- River of Stars: 109
- One Royal Supremacy: 108
- Smooth Operator: (rated low)
- Goody Two Shoes: 104
10 FACTORS FRAMEWORK:
1. Weight (52-55.5kg sweet spot vs 59kg Al Riffa exception)
2. Trainer (Joseph O'Brien, Willie Mullins, Gai Waterhouse trusted)
3. Running style (closers only - leaders fail at 3200m)
4. Acceleration/sectionals (TKZ ratings Saturday)
5. Distance (proven 3,200m stayers)
6. Lead-up race (Caulfield Cup CRITICAL - Half Yours won it)
7. Odds (value vs class)
8. Breeding (covered Episode 4 Saturday)
9. Track condition (covered Episode 4 Saturday)
10. Class (Al Riffa 6 lengths clear on pure figures)
Episode 4 drops SATURDAY NIGHT after barrier draw with final selections for Monday's call of the card.
"We're going to have a big crack this year."
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MILLION DOLLAR MELBOURNE CUP CHALLENGE:
✓ Episode 1: The 7 Factors Framework
✓ Episode 2: Weights Released & Key Chances
✓ Episode 3: All 25 Runners Analyzed [YOU ARE HERE]
→ Episode 4: Barrier Draw & Final Bet (Saturday Night)
Melbourne Cup 2025 | Al Riffa | Presage Nocturne | Half Yours | Goody Two Shoes | Valiant King | River of Stars | Horse Racing Tips | Professional Punting | The King Zone
Subscribe - Episode 4 Saturday reveals the final $1 million plunge.